PoliticsOne Nation’s rise puts next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

One Nation has surged from just 6% of the vote at the last election to first or second place in some recent polls. The rightwing party’s rise has disrupted Australian politics and made the next election far harder to forecast. Urban seats remain a significant obstacle, while preference flows are now more difficult to predict. Analysts had previously relied on voting patterns from earlier contests to estimate two-party-preferred results and seat projections, when most races were essentially between Labor and the Coalition.

Australian politicsOne Nationelectionpolling

TThe Guardian★★★☆☆2026-07-12 15:00Original